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What are the odds of a Fed cut?

Sept. 18: This is a toss-up. Investors see a 50.5% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by the Sept. 17-18 Fed meeting, with a tiny 3.9% chance of 50 basis points. On May 31, the odds were for a 54.8% chance of Fed cut, and a slim 7.7% chance of 50 basis points.

What are the chances of a rate cut this year?

Markets see a 46.2% chance of two rate cuts this year, and only 10.9% for 75 basis points. On May 31, markets saw an 85% chance of at least one quarter-point cut and 44.5% for 50 basis points and 11.8% for 75 basis points..

What are the odds of a quarter-point fed rate cut?

On March 27, investors pegged 25 basis points at 95.8%, with a 71% chance of 50 basis points and 27% for 75 basis points. Nov. 7: The odds of a quarter-point Fed rate cut are 64.4% by the Nov. 6-7 meeting, which ends two days after U.S. elections. There's a 17% chance of 50 basis points by this Fed meeting.

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